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Tag Archives: Stats
Staten Island residential home sales reach 243, a nearly a 15% jump from October, and a 29% leap from last November.
Are there signs that Staten Island’s real estate market is thawing from last year’s dismal home sale numbers? Well, it’s way too soon to tell at the moment, but 3 out of the last 4 months have seen total residential home sale numbers above 200. Like I stated in October’s market report, there is a considerable amount of correlation on home sales numbers reaching above or below the 200 sale mark, as they relate to the Staten Island real estate market’s direction.
The Staten Island Real Estate Market report from the real estate brokerage of RealEstateSINY.com
While the total home sale numbers are improving, there are still some important numbers that have not really moved all that much. Median home sales prices have basically within the year to date averages, so not much to speak of there.
Two particular stats of interest, and usually good leading indicators were a little surprising, seeing that home sales numbers improved considerably over the last two months. First Days on the market, the other is percentage of list to sell prices. The average days on the market were the same as October, standing in at 147 days, and stood above the year to date average of 142 days, again, a little surprising seeing the amount of sales this month. The other, percentage of list to sell prices fell just a shade below the year average of 93.85%, standing in at 93.55%. It’s these two numbers that are good leading indicators, however, have shown little movement in a direction that suggests values will improve in the near term.
One good leading indicator is the month’s inventory has dropped by more than 2 months, from 15 months to a shade under 13 months. This number basically tells you how many months it would take to sell only the current inventory of homes on the market, based on the total of monthly sales divided into the current active inventory. So, it is indicative that more homes are selling than coming on the market when this number begins to shrink.
There are some questions moving forward positive ones that aren’t necessarily tied to real estate. Consumer sentiment is on the rise; retail numbers are indicative of that. Consumer sentiment will likely run in tandem with real estate market. The key is, is this latest upswing in Staten Island home sales a trend or a blip. The blip scenario has been in play the last 2 years and that been mainly due to tax credit mania in 2009 and 2010. This time around that’s not the case, and this may be the first real indication of the real estate markets sustainability. However, it will take at least another 3 months of solid data to establish this latest run as a trend. Stay tuned…
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- Mortgage Rate Trends
- Mortgage Rate Trends
This week the 30-year fixed rate mortgage decreased from 4.24% to 4.23% and the 15-year fixed rate mortgage remained unchanged at 3.47%. The 5-year adjustable rate mortgage increased this week from 3.17% to 3.20%.
A little more than half of the experts and analysts think that the rates will remain unchanged this week. With the European debt problems continuing and the U.S. budget deficit people are still mainly putting money into bonds which is holding the mortgage rates steady.
One set of mortgage experts and analysts that think the rates will increase feel that the banks will raise the mortgage rates. By doing so, they look to slow down new mortgage applications as fears of some inflationary pressure, weighs on the minds of some analysts.
There is another set of experts and analysts that think the rates will decrease, see that the objective for a 10-year Treasury is at a yield of 1.81%, which will likely cause mortgage rates to fall by 0.125%. These lower rates are primarily caused by the European debt crisis and the possibility of U.S. debt downgrade.
Our take, a healthy consumer spending spree on Black Friday was a record. With 5 weeks until Christmas, the sustainability of consumer spending this holiday season is something that has yet to unfold. However, it should be viewed as a positive sign that the overall mood of consumers seems to be thawing, especially when looking at the last several years. When you consider consumer spending represents two thirds of the entire economy, it’s a positive sign. As for mortgages rates, if evidence that increasing consumer confidence appears to be in is rising this holiday season, expect mortgage rates to rise with the tide of consumer optimism. In saying that, there are still systemic issues with the overall economy and I believe that mortgage rates mat dace a bit higher on the news, but the overall economic climate is tepid at best, it shouldn’t jar loose any sustained trend in rising mortgage interest rates.
For more information on mortgage rate movements or check back here once a week or visit RealEstateSINY.com for the latest on Staten Island real estate. Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday. Mortgage rates come courtesy of BankRate.com.
Staten Island saw a 21% jump in home sales from September and a 6% jump from last October.
There are some signs that the real estate market is thawing on Staten Island, but by no means are the latest stats indicative of a robust recovery. So, for now, let’s look at some of the positives in the report.
With a jump in home sales, from 188 sales in September to October’s 208 residential home sales, it a very good sign; especially that it’s the third time in the last six months that saw home sales eclipse the 200 mark. I have been doing these reports for nearly four years and the 200 sales mark seems to be the par number in the health of the real estate market here. I have noticed that once the sales numbers head below the 200-mark for more than three consecutive months, median home prices subsequently decline in the months following. Inversely, values hold, if not gain just a bit, in the following months that exceed 200 home sales.
So how can we assume things have thawed a bit in the real estate market here?
There is little doubt, by looking at the year-over-year real estate stats; the post-tax rebate real estate market from July 2010 to July 2011 will go down, in the history of this crisis, as one of the worst volume sales periods on Staten Island since MLS began recording data. Consequently, only 3 out of the 12 months recorded more than 200 units of home sales. If you factor in that Staten Island has considerably more population and housing stock from when sales data was recorded by MLS, it’s even more apparent. In light of that fact, it doesn’t take much to show improvement from this point moving forward, and no one is going to feel enthusiastic about what this thaw will provide, at least in terms of getting more value from their home. Ultimately, what is does provide is some price stability.
Fundamentals are still shaky… There is a sense of jitteriness over the world’s financial shape and high